Day 1 – May 19th, 2015


Short Course

09.00 – 17.30 An Industry Approach to Bayesian Phase I Oncology Trials: Methodology and Implementation
Beat Neuenschwander and Simon Wandel, Novartis Pharma AG, Basel, Switzerland
Description of the short course


Day 2 – May 20th, 2015

Computational challenges and opportunities for advanced models and ODE

Session chair: Tom Jacobs

08:30 – 09:00 Registration
(Bruno Boulanger)
09:00 – 09:45 Bayesian Analysis Using PROC MCMC – Fang Chen (SAS Institute) Download slides
09:45 – 10:30 Building Robust Pharmacometric Models with STAN- Michael Betancourt (University of Wawrick) Download slides
10:30 – 11:00 Coffee Break / Poster Session 1
11:00 – 11:45 Bayesian aggregation of average data in hierarchical models – Sebastian Weber (Novartis Pharma AG) Download slides
11:45 – 12:30  Bayesian estimation in mixed effects models using Monolix and mlxR- Marc Lavielle (Inria Saclay) Download slides
12:30 – 13:30 Lunch break
13:30 – 13:50 Bayesian hierarchical PK/PD model to characterize the exposure-QT effect relationship in early drug development – Muriel Boulton (Grünenthal) Download slides
13:50 – 14:10 A Bayesian population physiologically-based model to predict the impact of age and drug-drug interaction on Mavoglurant pharmacokinetics. – Thierry Wendling (Novartis) Download slides
14:10 – 14:30 A model based on ODE for the evolution of the number of Ebola cases in Sierra Leone – Philippe Lambert (ULg)
14:30 – 14:50 Hierarchical ODE models using Stan – Jan Serroyen (Janssen) Download slides
14:50 – 15:20 Coffee break / Poster Session 2
15:20 – 15:40 Bayesian Dose-Exposure Model for Oncology Phase I dose-escalation Combination Studies – Daniel Lorand (Novartis) Download slides
15:40 – 16:00 Design and Analysis of Clinical Trials With Biologics Using Dose Time Response Models – Markus Lange (Novartis)
16:00 – 16:20 Variable selection in covariate dependent random partition models: an application to urinary tract infection – William Barcella (UCLondon) Download slides
16:20 – 16:40 Estimation of diagnostic accuracy of a combination of continuous biomarkers allowing for conditional dependence between the biomarkers and the imperfect reference test
Leandro Garcia Barrado (I-Biostat) Download slides
17:30 – 18:30 Social event (Basel City Tour)
19:00 – open end Dinner

Day 3 – May 21st , 2015

Communicating Bayesian Statistics

Session Chair: Simon Wandel

08:45 – 09:00 Welcome
09:00 – 10:30 Chinese Whispers – Anthony O’Hagan (University of Sheffield) Download slides
10:30 – 11:00 Coffee Break / Poster Session 3
11:00 – 11:45 Becoming a multilingual statistician – Matt Whiley (Novartis Pharma AG) Download slides
11:45 – 12:30  Implementation of Bayesian thinking within Industry – Feedbacks from BioMérieux- Didier Poirault (BioMérieux) Download slides
12:30 – 13:30 Lunch break
13:30 – 13:50 Bayesian Methods and Thinking in Pfizer’s Pharmatherapeutics Division: How We Got Here, What We’ve Done and Where We’re Headed. – Phil Woodward (Pfizer) Download slides
13:50 – 14:10 Introducing Bayesian dose escalation in an industrial environment: challenges and opportunities beyond statistics – Daniela Fischer (Boehringer Ingelheim), Oliver Schoenborn-Kellenberger (Cogitars GmbH)  Download slides
14:10 – 14:30 Prediction of hemoglobin in blood donors using a latent class mixed-effects transition model – Kazem Nasserinejad (U. Rotterdam)
14:30 – 14:50 Long-term outcome estimation combining real world with clinical trial data in metastatic melanoma following a Bayesian approach – Yovanna Castro (Hoffman-La Roche)
14:50 – 15:20 Coffee break / Poster Session 4
15:20 – 15:40 Robust Meta-Analytic Predictive Priors in Clinical Trials with Historical Control Information – Heinz Schmidli (Novartis) Download slides
15:40 – 16:00 Applications of robust meta-analytic-predictive priors: two case studies from infectious disease early development –Baldur Magnusson (Novartis) Download slides
16:00 – 16:20 Sensitivity of heterogeneity priors in meta-analysis – Ma lgorzata Roos (U. Zurich) Download slides
16:20 – 16:40 Using historical controls as prior information in the analysis of clinical trials: which method to use and what to expect? –Joost van Rosmalen (Rotterdam, Roche)
16:40 – 17:00 Hierarchical Bayesian adaptive design for Novartis Signature Program – Ghulam Warsi (Novartis) Download slides

Day 4 – May 22nd , 2015

Computational tools

08:45 – 09:00 Welcome
09:00 – 09:45 Biips: Software for Bayesian Inference with Interacting Particle Systems- Adrien Todeschini (INRIA, Université de Bordeaux) Download slides
09:45 – 10:00 Bayesian pharmacometric modeling with Stan, BUGS and NONMEM –Bill Gillespie (Metrum) Download slides
10:30 – 11:00 Coffee Break / Poster Session 5
11:00 – 11:45 Extending the Integrated Laplace Approximation: Applications in Bayes Pharma- Virgilio Gómez-Rubio (University of Castilla-La mancha)
11:45 – 12:05 Meta-analysis of medical event occurrence using Approximate Bayesian Computation – Björn Holzhauer (Novartis Pharma AG)
12:05 – 12:30 Fast approximations for the expected value of partial perfect information using R-inla – Anna Heath (UCL) Download slides
12:30 – 13:30 Lunch break and end of the conference



Simulation and prior information: a straightforward approach to robust process settings
Robert Anderson,
SAS Institute Inc. Bernd Heinen, SAS Institute GmbH

A robust Bayesian meta-analytic-predictive approach to borrow strength from historical information in thorough QT studies
Karine Meiser, Heinz
Schmidli Novartis Pharma AG

Powering of process validation: determining the sampling plan for PPQ
Jean-François Michiels
Arlenda Download poster

Bayesian approach to assess the safety of bevacizumab with neoadjuvant chemotherapy in ovarian cancer.
David Pau 1, Claire Cropet2, Florence Joly 3, Roman Rouzier 4, Youssef Ghazi 1, Violette Menguy 1, Nathalie Vernet 5, Sarah Zohar6
1 Roche, Medical Affairs, Boulogne-Billancourt, France  2 Centre Léon Bérard, Direction de la Recherche Clinique et de l’Innovation, Lyon, France 3 INSERM U1086, Centre François Baclesse – CHU Côte de Nacre,Caen, France4 Institut Curie, Chef de service de Chirurgie Gynécologique et Sénologique, Université Versailles-St-Quentin-en-Yvelines,France 5 AIXIAL R&D, 110/114 rue Jules Guesde, Levallois-Perret, France

6 INSERM UMRS 1138, team 22,  Centre de Recherche des Cordeliers, Université Paris 5, Université Paris, 6, Paris, France

Use of Bayesian networks in Design of Experiments.
Alain PoncinOctoplus

Choice of prior distributions in rare-events meta-analysis
Soheila Aghlmandi, Marcel Zwahlen
Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Bern, Switzerland

Bayesian analysis of n. Meningitidis in Italy after 2006
Clara Grazian Università di Roma

Bayesian adaptive designs in single ascending dose trials in healthy volunteers
David Guede, Reigner B, Vandenhende F, Derks M, Beyer U, Jordan P, Worth E, Diack C, Frey N, Peck R., Br J Clin Pharmacol

Accelerating mcmc on graphics processing units
David Norris
David Norris Consulting, LLC

Blinded Bayesian adverse event monitoring
Oliver Sailer, Timo Bailer
Boehringer Ingelheim Pharma GmbH & Co.

Assess the uncertainty of assurance
Guochen Song

Estimating the effect size for an already selected subgroup
Björn Bornkamp
, David Ohlssen and Heinz Schmidli – Novartis Pharma AG

Are Central Bankers Inflation Nutters? A Bayesian MCMC Estimator of the Long Memory Parameter in a State Space Model
Yushu Li
Norwegian school of economics


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